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by Jonathan Flint, Managing Director Citigate Dewe Rogerson<\/pre>\nIt\u2019s that time of year again when asset managers gather in front of the media to present their mid-year outlooks on the future of the global economy, markets and asset classes.<\/h2>\n
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For many commentators, 2017 was largely seen as a \u2018Goldilocks\u2019 year \u2013 not so hot that it caused inflation and not so cold that it triggered a recession. So far 2018 has been characterised by the return of volatility, with the FTSE 100 hitting a 2018-low of 6,889 points on 26th<\/sup>\u00a0March before hitting a 7,877 high at the end of May.<\/p>\n
That means predicting the remainder of 2018 is tough. The Goldilocks conditions are deteriorating and it is against this backdrop that some investors are wondering about a shift to a less benign environment.<\/h4>\n
According to a recent market survey only 2% of investors expect a recession this year, but 41% are predicting a significant global slowdown next year and that edges up to 43% with regards to 2020.<\/p>\n
There were some intriguing emerging themes from a mid-year outlook breakfast event that Citigate Dewe Rogerson organised this week.\u00a0 The conclusion was that the global economy has moved from acceleration to consolidation.\u00a0 Monetary policy is gradually returning to normal, markets are becoming more sensitive to sentiment swings and geopolitical uncertainty remains high.<\/p>\n
It was forecast that this will remain the case over the next six months with US trade policy and Eurozone politics setting the tone. Risks remain that trade skirmishes will evolve into full-blown trade wars while the stance of the Italian government on issues such as the EU budget, immigration and markets reforms relative to the rest of the bloc will be crucial.<\/p>\n